https://intelligence.org/2025/12/01/miris-2025-fundraiser/

EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

Question is about any current or future openAI models vs any competitor models.

If a language model exists that is undoubtedly the most accurate, reliable, capable, and powerful, that model will win. If there is dispute as to which is more powerful, a significant popularity/accessibility advantage will decide the winner. There must be public access for it to be eligible.

See previous market for more insight into my resolution plan: 

: capabilities were "similar". Both Google and openAI models tied for first place on LLM Arena. OpenAI won because of their popularity/market dominance.

 if OpenAI releases no new models by end of year.

If the AI passes the test at least once before 2025, this market is true.

If the AI doesn't pass the test, or there is no suitable technology to automate it, it will be false.

The market is inspired by this YouTube video that I just found:

https://youtu.be/bKPP20rvp3s?si=Esvct6iWgObNoit3

 Those wanting to participate should contact the creator privately rather than posting publicly in comments or chat.

Most valuable by either public market cap or private valuation

If there are any spinoffs after this question was created, I will count the combined value including the spinoff companies

Post suggestions for companies to add in the comments

Blacks out at least three times in Mt. Moon

Enters Erika's Gym or Rocket Hideout before step 50000

Enters Erika's Gym or Rocket Hideout before step 25000

Gets Silph Scope or defeats Erika before 30,000 steps

Run ends/is reset because new Claude version is released

Gets HM03(Surf) or any fourth badge before 45,000 steps

Claude Plays Pokemon is a Twitch stream where the AI chatbot Claude attempts to beat Pokemon Red. 

Once the game is reset, all remaining answers resolve NO, even if the stream continues with a new game.

I am N/Aing anything that is annoying to resolve. If I have to pore over multiple days of twitch VODs to figure out which way an answer resolves, I am not going to bother.

https://manifold.markets/JoshSnider/what-will-happen-during-the-fifth-r

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-the-third-r

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-the-second

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-claude-play-0ZnSuI95EO

Resolves >5 if the contest is cancelled. 

I will not be participating in the market. 

Decline to participate means the country making it's own decision to not participate. Countries removed from the competition by EBU do not count. To clarify, should Israel for instance under advice decide to withdraw, that would count as one if not through official action by EBU. 

This means the market is comparing against countries that were expected/announced to participate in Eurovision 2026 when this market was created, not against all 53 EBU-eligible countries.

Primitive Technology (original, not the copycats)

Shorts do not count, Livestreams do not count, but uploaded videos in the main Video tab that are made from streams do count

"KPop Demon Hunters" is already #1 on Netflix's 

. As of market creation, it has stayed in the top 10 for 11 weeks (and was #1 in its 11th week). This market resolves to the number of consecutive weeks that "KPop Demon Hunters" appears in the Netflix Global Top 10 before it is absent for the first time.

The close date will be extended as needed.

Resolution criteria is identical to and will follow the following Polymarket market:

https://polymarket.com/event/which-movie-has-best-opening-weekend-in-2025

Cowboys beat Lions (12/04) 8:15 PM (Prime Video)

Seahawks beat Falcons (12/07) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Steelers beat Ravens (12/07) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Commanders beat Vikings (12/07) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Saints beat Buccaneers (12/07) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Broncos beat Raiders (12/07) 4:05 PM (CBS)

Rams beat Cardinals (12/07) 4:25 PM (FOX)

Eagles beat Chargers (12/08) 8:15 PM (ESPN/ABC)

Get ready for an exhilarating season of football!

 (⭐4.96) for lightning-fast market resolutions and surprise market liquidity boosts all year long. Don't miss out—join the excitement today!

Any player throws for more than 350 yards and loses

Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes

AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back

A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury

Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game

Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game

Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game

For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name

Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT

Any team scores 24+ points before halftime

A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 4 TDs (including passing)

A QB has at least 3 turnovers and at least 3 TDs (including passing)

Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)*

A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)

Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams (Win %)

At least one missed kicking extra point attempt

A prime number of total missed field goals + extra points

Team change in top 5 Super Bowl favorites from previous Wednesday to Wednesday after the weeks games

2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week

California Teams (Chargers, Rams, 49ers) finish the week with a better record than New York State teams (Bills, Jets, Giants)

A 1pm ET game is still going when a 4:25pm ET game starts

Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)

For each game, take the GCD of both teams' scores. Is the result for any game at least 8?

Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game

4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped

3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game

The player with the most passing yards wears a prime number

Add your own props! Answers should be able to be resolved by about a Week after this Week's game slate completes!

MVP Favorite Changes (from Matthew Stafford)

A 1pm EST game is still going when a 4:25pm EST game starts

Player wearing a Guardian Cap scores a touchdown during a Thanksgiving day game

Pylon knocked over for a successful touchdown on Monday Night Football

This market will resolve based on the outcomes of the 2nd Ashes Test between Australia and England, scheduled from December 4 to December 8, 2025, at The Gabba in Brisbane. The match is a day-night Test, played with a pink ball under lights. Resolutions will be determined using official match reports from reputable sources such as ESPNcricinfo and the BBC.

The 2nd Ashes Test of the 2025/26 series is set to be a day-night match at The Gabba, marking the first time Brisbane hosts a pink-ball Ashes Test. (

Will it be possible for a non Tesla employee to ride in a fully autonomous Tesla vehicle anywhere in the world by the end of 2025?

Has to be a service that non Tesla employees can use. Has to be a point to point ride of at least 1 mile. Has to be on public roads in a city. 

The creator acknowledges that other edge cases may arise and will wait to see how the situation evolves before making a final resolution.

This market will resolve based on Elon Musk's net worth as reported by Forbes and Bloomberg. I intend to meet the spirit of the following, but will use my best judgement to resolve, including replacing these sources with other financial media if I decide it's necessary: 

"If both of these sources agree that Elon Musk has a net worth of greater than or equal to $1 trillion on any single date on or before Dec 31st, 2028, the market will resolve yes; otherwise it will resolve no. "

https://www.forbes.com/profile/elon-musk/

https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/

If a large language models beats a super grandmaster (Classic elo of above 2,700) while playing blind chess by 2028, this market resolves to YES.

I will ignore fun games, at my discretion. (Say a game where Hiraku loses to ChatGPT because he played the Bongcloud)

Some clarification (28th Mar 2023): This market grew fast with a unclear description. My idea is to check whether a general intelligence can play chess, without being created specifically for doing so (like humans aren't chess playing machines). Some previous comments I did.

1- To decide whether a given program is a LLM, I'll rely in the media and the nomenclature the creators give to it. If they choose to call it a LLM or some term that is related, I'll consider. Alternatively, a model that markets itself as a chess engine (or is called as such by the mainstream media) is unlikely to be qualified as a large language model.

2- The model can write as much as it want to reason about the best move. But it can't have external help beyond what is already in the weights of the model. For example, it can't access a chess engine or a chess game database. 

I won't bet on this market and I will refund anyone who feels betrayed by this new description and had open bets by 28th Mar 2023. This market will require judgement.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, following the 2026 United States House of Representatives elections, the Republican Party holds at least 218 seats, thereby securing a majority in the House. Conversely, it will resolve to "No" if the Republicans hold fewer than 218 seats. The official election results, as reported by the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, will serve as the primary source for resolution. (

The 2026 midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026, will determine the composition of the 120th United States Congress. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be contested. As of June 2025, the Republican Party holds a narrow majority with 220 seats, while the Democratic Party holds 213 seats. (

⚠️⚠️☣️ AI SLOP ZONE⚠️⚠️☣️ 

FIFA launches annual Peace Prize; inaugural winner revealed at World Cup draw

The inaugural FIFA Peace Prize will be presented by FIFA President Gianni Infantino on December 5, 2025 at the Final Draw for the FIFA World Cup 26 in Washington DC. This market resolves YES if Trump is announced as the recipient. Resolution will be determined by official FIFA announcements and major news sources covering the award ceremony.

FIFA announced the creation of a peace prize to be awarded for the first time at the World Cup draw on December 5, with FIFA President Infantino presenting the award annually on behalf of fans from around the world. Trump was passed over for the Nobel Peace Prize last month despite lobbying from fellow Republicans, various world leaders and himself. Infantino, who has a close relationship with Trump, would not confirm whether Trump will be the first recipient, stating "On the 5th of December, you will see." FIFA recently appointed Trump's daughter Ivanka to the board of a $100 million education project part-funded by 2026 World Cup ticket sales..

Will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:

 if the median price for "Democratic" is higher than the median price for "Republican" on the Kalshi market 

Which party will win the 2028 Presidential Election?

, for the dates December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, inclusive.

Resolves YES if any individual is charged with any crime in relation to insider trading on Polymarket’s 2025 Nobel Peace Prize market by EOY 2025 according to consensus of credible reporting.

At least one person must be charged, but multiple can be. Charges are sufficient; no individual must be found guilty for this market to resolve yes. The charges don’t necessarily need to be for insider trading (eg could be corruption charges). Revelation of the identity of any perpetrators is NOT sufficient. Non-criminal disciplinary action by the Nobel committee or other bodies is also NOT sufficient. 

I will update if any more clarifications are needed

꧁∙·▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫꧁ MarkMyWords Series ꧂▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫·∙꧂

https://www.reddit.com/r/MarkMyWords/comments/1feuwpv/mmw_the_fbi_already_knows_who_the_dc_pipe_bomber/

This market will close for trading on January 5, 2026, or when the FBI announces an arrest related to the pipe bomb incidents, whichever comes first.

🇺🇸 US Politics

🖥️ Technology

🤖 AI

🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture

🏟️ Sports

🧪 Science

Resolves to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the 

, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the 

(May resolve provisionally if both the Associated Press projects a winner and the losing major party candidate concedes; if Manifold allows provisional resolutions.)

Artificial Intelligence (Including ChatGPT or any other variation)

Prediction Markets [including any founder/s or platform/s by name]

Ozempic (Including "Semiglutide", "GLPs", "Eli Lily", etc )

This question resolves to the TIME 2025 Person of The Year. It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers. 

If you would like to add a new candidate or consolidated answer to the market, submit them in a comment below. If a comment gets enough support, I'll open the market to submissions so that you can add it and you'll get the unique trader bonuses. 

Note that all consolidated answers must be mutually exclusive, so no more specific or general versions of existing options. The goal is to cleanly divide the probabilistic landscape into non-overlapping categories. 

If multiple options do end up being true, then those options will resolve to an even split of 100%.

Minimum to count as military conflict: either a combined 10 people die as part of action by either military OR a confirmed airstrike on Venezuelan soil (doesn't have to be on military targets).

This market resolves to the team that wins the final company-wide vote on Friday evening.

This market resolves YES if Valve themselves confirm half life 3 is in development before January 1st 2026.