Deepseek

Will DeepSeek go on Dwarkesh Podcast in 2025?4% chance

Will r1 or v3 cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?3% chance

Will Grok 3 beat DeepSeek R1 on the chatbot leaderboard?YES

Will DeepSeek remain available on US iOS App Store until January 1, 2026? (no ban or removal)90% chance

R2 (DeepSeek) release date

21%

Before 2026

29%

Before February 2026

33%

Before March 2026

Resolved

NO

Before February 2025

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Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?7% chance