Hard Forkasts 2024

Will the Apple Vision Pro be successful enough to revive interest in mixed reality and the metaverse?NO

Will Elon Musk get his own Hunter Biden laptop scandal in 2024?YES

Will white-collar workers unionize to prevent job loss to AI/automation in 2024?NO

Will Threads overtake X in daily active users by the end of 2024?NO

Will Google mostly catch up to OpenAI in LLM quality and neutralize ChatGPT's lead by the end of 2024?NO

Will a lawless LLM chatbot get 10 million daily active users by the end of 2024?NO

Which of Casey Newton's 2024 predictions will come true? [Multiple Choice]

Resolved

YES

GPT-5 begins training.

Resolved

YES

The quality of search results degrades as Google proves unable to reliably detect AI-generated content.

Resolved

YES

The US presidential election is full of synthetic media, and it mostly doesn’t matter.

Resolved

YES

Fragmentation in social media will make it more difficult to understand which narratives are resonating most with voters.

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How many of Casey Newton's 2024 predictions will come true?

100%24%

7

3%

1

1.4%

2

3%

3

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Will Shania Twain go on the Hard Fork podcast in 2024?NO